Obama fading? Charge Voter Suppression!

After his significant loss in Pennsylvania and fading poll numbers in North Carolina Obama has returned to his most effective tactic: using race to divide the Democratic electorate and super-charge his base support. His campaign was charging Women's Voices. Women Vote. (WVWV) with suppressing the African American vote in a conference call with reporters:

Pricey Harrison, a local Obama supporter on the call, said it was "a possibly deliberate attempt to disenfranchise voters."

Bauer also said some aspects of the calls violated the law and, speaking in general, said, "One of the tools of choice in inducing voters suppression is the use of robo-callls that mask their identity."

WVWV is a non-profit, non-partisan group founded in 2003 to register unmarried women to vote. Like the NAACP, another non-partisan group which focuses on registering African Americans, ACORN and Project Vote who register low- and middle income people, and the unions who register working people, WVWV uses a number of techniques to find and encourage people who are not registered to vote to do so.

WVWV is unique in that they are more willing to test new techniques and measure their effectiveness, they are big believers in the empirical approach advocated by Gerber and Green. WVWV usually tests techniques prior to elections, gathers and analyzes the results, and shares them with other voter reg organizations. In 2004 WVWV partnered with the NAACP on their voter registration drive. One approach that they have found to be cost effective for large registration campaigns is an automated phone call, followed by a voter registration form in the mail and then a follow-up phone call to encourage the citizen to send in the form. WVWV also closely studies results to determine when potential voters are most likely to register, and as one might expect people are most likely to respond when their interest is engaged, around an election. WVWV has registered or helped other groups register millions of new voters using these tested techniques, and it was on track to register millions more in this exciting election cycle.

Any large scale voter registration drive is bound to have a few problems, state voter files are not particularly reliable, people in less registered communities are usually more transitory and harder to find, even getting lists of people who might not be registered is difficult and expensive. Once you have a list of people who do not match a voter file many of them may have moved or you many not have correct phone numbers for them. In the middle of a busy election like this one some people may have registered between the time when you compiled your lists and when you begin your contacts. It is inevitable that some automated phone calls asking potential voters to look for a registration packet in the mail will reach the wrong party.

WVWV has been doing these registration drives for a while, and since they work on a scale of millions of potential new voters they inevitably attract the attention of Secretaries of State, especially when automated calls hit the wrong number. As a result they try to coordinate with the SoS in each state they operate, and they adjust their process according to the advice they get from the states. Usually, though, problems are resolved by explaining the process, as in Virginia where State Police investigated WVWV automated calls and determined that

The voter registration application contained in the packet is a legitimate voter registration form commonly accepted by the State Board of Elections. The organization provided prepaid envelopes addressed to the State Board of Elections...No charges will be placed against the organization, as neither the statewide phone solicitations nor mass mailings violate state law.

Occasionally Republicans will harass voter registration organizations with legal actions in an attempt to force them to waste resources on legal bills rather than spending them registering new voters. This is a tactic often used against organizations like the NAACP and ACORN. It was one of the key components of the U.S. Attorney scandal, where U.S. Attorneys who refused to pursue politically motivated legal action against voter registration groups were fired.

The program that WVWV is running in North Carolina is similar to the programs they have run elsewhere, an automated call and registration packet to likely eligible unregistered people timed to hit when they are engaged in the election. The NC Attorney General has asked them to stop the robo calls, which they have, and is investigating whether the absence of a disclaimer in the call was a violation of NC law. He has also asked for information about WVWV's process so that he can evaluate the legality of their program, and WVWV is reportedly cooperating.

Barack Obama and his lawyer Bob Bauer know all of this. Obama knows that WVWV was critical to registering new voters for him in Illinois in 2004, Bob Bauer knows the Bush administration's history of punishing groups like WVWV with frivolous lawsuits, they know that WVWV works closely with the NAACP and ACORN, they know that it is illegal for non-partisan (501(c)(3)s) to coordinate with candidates. And yet Barack Obama has decided that his political skin is more important than all of that work expanding the franchise, and if he can score some points against Hillary Clinton by characterizing a group that registers women as racist, then he will.

It is too early to tell how much Obama's attack will set back voter registration efforts by progressive groups, the political damage and legal costs to WVWV could lose us a million new voters, and the set-back to their efforts will impact the efforts of the NAACP, ACORN and the unions. The loss will not only impact competitive presidential states, but also critical House, Senate and Gubernatorial races. But one thing is certain, Barack Obama just made John McCain's job a little easier.

Deb Coops diary is the source for much of my information here, as well as the WVWV site. Matt Stoller and Chris Bowers at OpenLeft have more information, especially in the comments from nathanhj, and Mike Lux of OpenLeft and WVWV gives another take. The conclusions are entirely my own.



Display:


Re: Obama fading? Charge Voter Suppression! (1.75 / 4)

Obama is a uniter.  The more he unites the AA vote around him, the more he unites everybody else against him.  How did the "post-racial" candidate end up making this whole primary process a referendum on race?


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 04:48:43 AM EST

Spinning is our new pastime! (2.00 / 1)

Here we go again!

There was a purge yesterday when the same facts were presented on this site, and the judgement of the posters were that Big Bad Hillary was responsible for suppressing voters.(I admit I actually bought into that for awhile, but now think it was just incompetence more than anything.)

Now the same facts are presented and the judgement is made by the poster that Big Bad Obama is responsible for dirty tricks.
Let's all cool down and think before we divide this party further. The Republicans are laughing at us!

In fact, let's go back even further than that and think what the world thinks of us. I saw the HBO special John Adams. John Adams and George Washington put the country (The good old USA) before their own political party while Hamilton and Jefferson put their party's philosophies ahead of the constitution and the country.

I know this site is for loyal Democrats and because of that - the bickering should stop. However, more importantly, as Americans, shouldn't we think of our place in the world.

We need to end global warming, stop a pending food shortage, face the threat of terrorism and stop a stupid war. That should be our real concern.

Whether the WWWV is a saintly organizational, is partial for one candidate, or just a bunch of incompetents who register voters for the general election, while the primaries are still going on, and do it breaking a bunch of state felony laws is not as big a deal as our real problems.

Lets prioritize and look at the big picture.


Democrats never agree on anything, that's why they're Democrats. If they agreed with each other, they would be Republicans. - Will Rogers
by benjaminsp on Thu May 01, 2008 at 05:12:31 AM EST

Re: Spinning is our new pastime! (2.00 / 2)

I take these tactics very seriously, what the Bush administration did to destroy groups registering new voters was disgusting and criminal. Obama does not have that kind of power yet, but he is using the same tactics in this case. Further, he has tried to tie WVWV to suppressing African American voters, which is extremely divisive and damaging to the Democratic party.

WVWV is neither saintly nor incompetent, and it is no more biased than the NAACP. All of these groups are doing the good work of registering new voters, and though they each run afoul of state regulations occasionally they have a history of doing the right thing.

So I am asking you to look at the big picture and get beyond bias toward one candidate. All Democrats can agree that registering new voters is important work, and that anyone who attacks those efforts is attacking fundamental Democratic values.


by souvarine on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:11:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama fading? (2.00 / 3)

Anybody watched Obama lately? He looks totally defeated. The only thing I can reason is that the numbers are bad. And desperation does cause him campaign to do these kinds of things.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Thu May 01, 2008 at 07:26:33 AM EST

Re: Obama fading? (2.00 / 1)

It's interesting to read body language and there's no doubt he looks tired. I've seen a couple of journalists make the same comment. Some one was writing about her scarfing down Tostitos while he sticks to bottled water. It's perhaps hard to tell whether she's literally wearing him down or he's just getting fed up with all the minutiae bs that you have to go through as a candidate. Don't look to get any sensible discussion here, his fans claim he's ready to compete in the Olympics but there's definitely some lassitude creeping in there. Maybe it was just a bad week. You have to give it to the pair of them. The stamina and focus it takes to keep this up for a year is staggering although there seems to be precious little understanding of it here.  


by ottovbvs on Thu May 01, 2008 at 08:59:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh, no, not the dreaded body language expert (none / 0)

I find this to be one of the most insidious of Fox News's schticks.  They can speculate that they want without reprecussion, because the lady is an "expert" in an inexact science.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu May 01, 2008 at 09:13:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama is not fading. (none / 0)

That's silly.  He's still got a commanding lead in pledged delegates, and all indications are that the superdelegates are going to come down in his favor.  There was even a Clinton defector today.

Regardless, I suggest we hold on to our judgement on the WVWV issue until it can be investigated more thoroughly.  Yes, it looks bad when they supposedly target single women using the possibly=ficticious name "Lamont Williams" and don't bother announcing their affiliation in the robo-calls while sending out drastically incorrect voter registration information, but it could be simple incompetance.

We've seen many situations where even our federal government has been involved in heinous and egregious violations that were determined to be simple gross incompetance, for example the outing of Valerie Plame as a covert CIA agent or the authorization of torture.

I assure you, it's possible that WVWV was simply exceedingly negligent and incompetant in 11 states already.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu May 01, 2008 at 09:10:16 AM EST

Re: Obama is not fading. (2.00 / 1)

Anything is possible, but my intent is to show that the bulk of the evidence and history is on WVWV's side. As I suggest with the Virginia example the complaints in these 11 states are either groundless or simple misunderstandings. No one has alleged that WVWV has targeted African Americans, or any particular group of voters, for voter suppression in other states, just that their approach might cause confusion.

I had not read that WVWV has mailed "drastically incorrect voter registration information", the complaint in NC is based only on the robo-call. Neither the Facing South post nor the AG press release mention a misleading mailing. Besides, according to the AG the mailing connected to these complaints has not been sent yet.

Given their dramatic success at registering new voters in those 11 states I see them as quite careful and competent.


by souvarine on Thu May 01, 2008 at 09:59:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

From what I've heard (none / 0)

The "voter registration packets" that they've mailed out have come well after it was too late to register to vote.

That seems a bit misleading.  If you're not already registered by the time people have been getting these robo-calls, you're not voting anyway.

You can see how some might think that this is either incompetant or electoral fraud.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:10:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: From what I've heard (2.00 / 1)

Since the packets are valid documents that result in many newly registered voters for the general election I don't see the problem. WVWV targeted people who are not registered, and as you point out the calls went out after people can register for the primary so they won't impact the primary electorate.  They will generate more registrations for the general election.

I can see how people unfamiliar with the process might be concerned about election fraud, especially in the African American community, regular targets of fraud. That is why I hold the Obama campaign responsible, they know WVWV, what it does, and how it does it. They have a duty not to feed the fear of legitimate voter registration drives.


by souvarine on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:21:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

We'll see what happens (none / 0)

Obama just called the reports "disturbing," which is what they are.

Hopefully if they take any action, it will be after they get more information.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:39:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We'll see what happens (2.00 / 2)

If Obama himself is now weighing in then this is clearly his attempt to generate more heat than light. He already has all the information he needs to give WVWV the benefit of the doubt, having the candidate himself call these reports "disturbing" is just a way to get the attack more news coverage.

Do you have a link?


by souvarine on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:46:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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